Happy New Year to everyone! Here are some brief predictions for the first two trading days of 2014, with more predictions to follow over the next few days/weeks. Specifically, I’ll put out detailed January predictions, 2014 predictions for the USA, and some long-term predictions for the USA (through about 2024).

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Jan 2 (Th): Strong mixed influence; market may possibly go up (55-60%). A super busy news day, with increased news about topics like mortgages, real-estate, food supply, and various domestic issues (e.g., developments within specific countries as opposed to the global-scale events). The focus will likely be on government regulation of the above issues, some large corporate entities making changes that affect the above areas, and/or possibly travel (e.g., some new ways of growing and delivering food, changes [prob. increase] in domestic tourism, changes [prob. increase] in home sales, etc.). Geopolitically, a tense day, with increased potential for accidents, violence, protests, etc. Again, prob. due to some domestic issues (so tensions that are localized or erupt over issues related to how people feel about their country, homes, real-estate, mortgages, living conditions, food, etc.).

Jan 2-3: Increased likelihood of investors displaying some excessive behavior and overreacting to the news – either selling or buying (esp. on the news related to mortgages, real-estate, banks’ profits, domestic security, etc.). Regardless of the market direction, the probability of greater than average size swings is increased. For the US, there is an increased possibility of some mild international tensions/misunderstandings (like disagreement with some partner because of the opposing views) or tension/pushback over some law.

Jan 3 (Fr): Strong mixed influence; market may possibly go up (55-60%). Today, the geopolitical tensions will likely subside slightly compared to the 2^nd, but the behavior demonstrating some excess by the investors will likely increase. The overall mood may be fairly optimistic—either because there are some positive news (e.g., related to the real-estate or banks, such as that home sales are up, banks’ savings are up or that banks are profiting, etc.) —or, because investors are selling like crazy and they are feeling euphoric over how much they’ve made and that their savings are up.

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USA 2014 highlights: January looks like a pretty eventful month (e.g., Jan 6-10 and 20-22 look pretty important, with increased potential for very positive news about the US economy around 20-22).  In general, 2014 will see several long-terms trends that have been unfolding in the background yielding some results/coming to fruition or an end. In particular (superficial first glance):

Jan 20-22 (and preceding/following couple of days/weeks) — some highlight /positive news about the economy, passage of laws, improved international relationships

Mar 10-13 (and preceding/following couple of weeks; culmination of some multi-year influence) — stress in international relationships, passage of laws (esp. related to surveillance, terrorism, mines, or other hidden issues), raised terror alert or some threat to the well-being of the country, increased power struggle within the country leadership, threat to the leadership, etc.

Apr 15-18 (and preceding/following couple of weeks; culmination of some multi-year influence) — a mixed bag of surprising (and potentially unpleasant) events re international relationships, leaders, but also increased optimism about the economy and the [new? younger?] leadership and [new? less-discriminatory/more-freedom-asserting?] laws. This time is significant on a global scale as well – very likely a MAJOR market direction change point; prob. a MAX.

May 14-18 (and preceding/following couple of weeks; culmination of some multi-year influence) — stress in international relationships, passage of laws (esp. related to surveillance, terrorism, mines, or other hidden issues), raised terror alert or some threat to the well-being of the country, increased power struggle within the country leadership, threat to the leadership, etc.  Also, some surprising (and potentially unpleasant) news about the financial system (e.g., some banks go under w/o much warning) or at least, worries/anxiety about the financial system and lack of money.

Nov 6-13 (and preceding/following couple of weeks; culmination of some multi-year influence) — some surprising (and potentially unpleasant) news about the leadership, change in the leadership (new? younger?), and/or some laws (new? less-discriminatory/more-freedom-asserting?) and/or international relationships.

Nov 22-30 (and preceding/following couple of days/weeks) — potential distress over loans, taxes, investments, governmental control, as well as any hidden issues, like surveillance, terrorism,  spying, mines (and whatever is dug up from the ground, like metals), etc.